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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 18-L.Treadwell to KC 22 for 7 yards (21-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP