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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to SEA 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.68 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP