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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(10:02) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith up the middle to KC 40 for 2 yards (51-M.Danna).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model