Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 94

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(12:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to KC 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Toney to KC 47 for 9 yards (57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -3.94 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.76 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 94, worth -5.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model