MIN @ CHI — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Zimmer

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HC Matt Nagy

Monday 2021-12-20 · 20:15 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

MIN

69.6%

CHI

30.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to MIN: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.238 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.121 EPA/dropback
MIN offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
CHI defense: +0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
CHI offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
MIN on 3 more days rest than CHI
MIN defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 24

–

CHI 18

Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIN

Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Adam Thielen WR Questionable Ankle

CHI

Xavier Crawford CB Out Concussion

DeAndre Houston-Carson S Out Forearm

Jason Peters T Out Ankle

Marquise Goodwin WR Doubtful Foot

Khyiris Tonga DT Doubtful Shoulder

Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Ankle

Roquan Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 17

–

CHI 9

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 05:09 TD MIN (5:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 0
Q2 13:32 FG MIN (13:32) 1-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 10 – CHI 0
Q2 01:37 FG CHI (1:37) 2-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 10 – CHI 3
Q3 05:55 TD MIN (5:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 15-I.Smith-Marsette for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – CHI 3
Q4 00:01 TD CHI (:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 87-J.Horsted for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – CHI 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP

p(convert) 57%

(11:38) 3-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at CHI 16 for 6 yards (35-L.Stocker).
Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(9:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to MIN 35, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-K.Osborn to MIN 46 for 11 yards (87-J.Horsted; 30-D.Virgin).
Q2 MIN 4th & 17 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

(13:32) 1-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(7:49) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to CHI 36, Center-42-A.DePaola. 17-J.Grant to CHI 35 for -1 yards (59-N.Vigil).
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 25

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 85%

(2:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 32-D.Montgomery to MIN 13 for 12 yards (59-N.Vigil).
Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

(1:37) 2-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 75%

(:33) 2-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Tomlinson), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 54

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56%

(:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right.
Q3 CHI 4th & 16 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(11:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at MIN 23 for 3 yards (30-D.Virgin).
Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(4:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 72 yards to MIN 2, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at MIN 4 for 2 yards (30-D.Virgin).
Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 87

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP

p(convert) 76%

(2:34) 3-J.Berry punts 17 yards to MIN 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-59-N.Vigil. Punt deflected by CHI 8-D.Williams.
Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 21

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

(1:02) 1-J.Fields sacked at MIN 23 for -2 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(14:54) 3-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-D.Byrd MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-29-K.Boyd at CHI 37.
Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%

(12:32) 3-J.Berry punts 31 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.
Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

(8:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney. Chicago challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(6:19) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CHI 44, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

(4:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Byrd [90-S.Richardson].
Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP

p(convert) 57%

(2:00) 3-J.Berry punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.
Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 49 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%

(:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 80-J.Graham to MIN 36 for 13 yards (59-N.Vigil; 55-A.Barr).