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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 31

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 2-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Tomlinson), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.87 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model