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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 87

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 3-J.Berry punts 17 yards to MIN 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-59-N.Vigil. Punt deflected by CHI 8-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.18 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 87, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP