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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 14

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Byrd [90-S.Richardson].

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.09 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model