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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 25

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 32-D.Montgomery to MIN 13 for 12 yards (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.34 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model