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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 79

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to MIN 35, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-K.Osborn to MIN 46 for 11 yards (87-J.Horsted; 30-D.Virgin).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model