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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 3-J.Berry punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.74 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -2.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP