Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 90

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 3

(6:19) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CHI 44, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.68 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 90, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model