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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 9

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(8:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney. Chicago challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model