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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 65

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at MIN 23 for 3 yards (30-D.Virgin).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model