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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 41

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 3-J.Berry punts 31 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model