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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 72 yards to MIN 2, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at MIN 4 for 2 yards (30-D.Virgin).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model