4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 3-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-D.Byrd MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-29-K.Boyd at CHI 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model