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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Darrell Bevell
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

HOU
32.9%
JAX
67.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.284 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.114 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.198 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

HOU

Jimmy Moreland CB Out Illness
Justin Reid S Out Concussion
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Brevin Jordan TE Questionable Hand
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Hip
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Hamstring

JAX

Carlos Hyde RB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 30
–
JAX 16

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:46 TD HOU (6:46) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 01:47 FG JAX (1:47) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 7 – JAX 3
  • Q1 01:42 TD HOU 15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out. HOU 13 – JAX 3
  • Q2 12:13 TD JAX (12:13) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – JAX 9
  • Q2 03:11 FG HOU (3:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 17 – JAX 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 20 – JAX 10
  • Q3 10:44 FG HOU (10:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 23 – JAX 10
  • Q3 04:52 FG JAX (4:52) 15-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 23 – JAX 13
  • Q4 11:22 FG JAX (11:22) 15-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 23 – JAX 16
  • Q4 02:32 TD HOU (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 29 – JAX 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 18 for -2 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:03) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to JAX 49 for 16 yards (55-L.McCray).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 66%

    (3:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 55%

    (:29) (No Huddle) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (43-N.Hewitt; 92-C.Smith).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to 50, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to JAX 47 for 3 yards (55-L.McCray).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (10:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (4:52) 15-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 49 for 48 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on JAX-91-D.Smoot, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 49.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (11:22) 15-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 18 for 3 yards (15-C.Moore).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-86-J.Hollister.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%

    (6:35) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to JAX 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-24-T.Smith.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 43, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to JAX 43 for 14 yards (50-S.Quarterman, 86-J.Hollister). PENALTY on HOU-59-E.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 45.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 18-L.Treadwell to JAX 40 for 15 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 37-T.Thomas).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 24%

    (:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-T.Austin ran ob at HOU 39 for 11 yards (32-G.Wallow).