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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 15-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model