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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 34

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model