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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Houston Texans 30

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 18-L.Treadwell to JAX 40 for 15 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -1.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model