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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Houston Texans 30

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-T.Austin ran ob at HOU 39 for 11 yards (32-G.Wallow).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model