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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to JAX 49 for 16 yards (55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model