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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:29) (No Huddle) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (43-N.Hewitt; 92-C.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.50 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model