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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-86-J.Hollister.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model