4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 7

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model