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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.09 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP