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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 92

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 43, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to JAX 43 for 14 yards (50-S.Quarterman, 86-J.Hollister). PENALTY on HOU-59-E.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 92, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 50, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model