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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 42

Houston Texans 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to JAX 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-24-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model