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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 15-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model