Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 66

Houston Texans 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

(9:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 18 for 3 yards (15-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.89 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model