4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
55.9%
NYG
44.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

CHI 24
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: CHI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CHI

Benny Cunningham RB Doubtful Ankle
Sherrick McManis CB Doubtful Hamstring
Mitchell Trubisky QB Doubtful right Shoulder
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Achilles
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Hamstring
B.J. Goodson LB Out Neck
Lorenzo Carter LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 27
–
NYG 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:22 TD NYG (14:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short left intended for 29-T.Cohen INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Ogletree at CHI 8. 52-A.Ogletree for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CHI-4-C.Daniel, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CHI 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 03:32 TD CHI (3:32) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 87-A.Shaheen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 03:43 TD CHI (3:43) 96-A.Hicks left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:01 FG NYG (:01) 2-A.Rosas 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CHI 14 – NYG 10
  • Q3 13:00 TD NYG (13:00) 13-O.Beckham pass deep middle to 81-R.Shepard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around to 13-Beckham who throws to 81-Shepard. CHI 14 – NYG 16
  • Q3 04:02 TD NYG (4:02) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [37-B.Callahan]. CHI 14 – NYG 23
  • Q4 09:29 FG CHI (9:29) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 17 – NYG 24
  • Q4 01:53 FG NYG (1:53) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CHI 17 – NYG 27
  • Q4 01:15 FG CHI (1:15) 1-C.Parkey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 20 – NYG 27
  • Q4 00:03 TD CHI (:03) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen pass short right to 17-A.Miller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 4-C.Daniel hands to 80-T.Burton who laterals to 29-T.Cohen who throws to 17-A.Miller for the score. CHI 26 – NYG 27
  • Q5 06:00 FG NYG (6:00) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CHI 27 – NYG 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 65 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to CHI 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 31 for 15 yards (9-R.Dixon).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NYG 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CHI 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton. PENALTY on NYG-30-A.Hamilton, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 25.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 34%

    (6:59) 29-T.Cohen right guard pushed ob at NYG 40 for 8 yards (20-J.Jenkins).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to NYG 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Davis to NYG 38 for 10 yards (48-P.Scales, 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to CHI 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (3:43) 96-A.Hicks left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CHI 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to NYG 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Davis to NYG 43 for 11 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson, 85-D.Brown).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 34%

    (:06) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 85-R.Ellison pushed ob at CHI 39 for 9 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Davis to NYG 40 for 15 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski, 85-D.Brown).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (4:02) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [37-B.Callahan].

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:42) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to NYG 20, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-44-N.Kwiatkoski.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CHI 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 8 yards (85-R.Ellison). FUMBLES (85-R.Ellison), and recovers at CHI 45. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 45 for no gain (72-K.Wynn). PENALTY on CHI-15-J.Bellamy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 36.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (9:29) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 17 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 57%

    (2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to CHI 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. 81-R.Shepard tips the ball to A.Hamilton who then tips it to 51-Z.DeOssie to down the ball prior to the end zone.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (1:53) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (1:15) 1-C.Parkey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 73%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right to 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at NYG 9 for 23 yards (21-L.Collins).