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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 32

Chicago Bears 20 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right to 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at NYG 9 for 23 yards (21-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.35 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EP