Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 78

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CHI 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton. PENALTY on NYG-30-A.Hamilton, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.46 EP
57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model