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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 79

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Davis to NYG 40 for 15 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski, 85-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model