Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 88

New York Giants 24 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CHI 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 8 yards (85-R.Ellison). FUMBLES (85-R.Ellison), and recovers at CHI 45. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 45 for no gain (72-K.Wynn). PENALTY on CHI-15-J.Bellamy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 36.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model