Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 62

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 14

(1:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CHI 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.19 EP
56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model