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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 3

Chicago Bears 17 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 1-C.Parkey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.48 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP