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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 59

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to CHI 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model