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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 81

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to NYG 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Davis to NYG 43 for 11 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson, 85-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model