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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 18

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model