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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Giants 17 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [37-B.Callahan].

The Three Options

GO +3.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model