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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 19

New York Giants 24 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.30 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model