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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 48

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 29-T.Cohen right guard pushed ob at NYG 40 for 8 yards (20-J.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.64 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model