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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 90

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 65 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 90, worth -5.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 47, worth -3.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model