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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 13.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SF
22.0%
PHI
78.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • C.J. Beathard (SF): -0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 17
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SF

Aaron Lynch DE Out Calf
K'Waun Williams CB Out Quadricep
Trenton Brown T Questionable Concussion
Reuben Foster LB Questionable Ankle
Brandon Fusco G Questionable Biceps
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Back

PHI

Jordan Hicks LB Out Achilles
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 10
–
PHI 33

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:41 FG PHI (2:41) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. SF 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 01:55 TD PHI (1:55) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – PHI 9
  • Q2 01:38 TD PHI (1:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right intended for 15-P.Garcon INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Mills at SF 37. 31-J.Mills for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-74-J.Staley was injured during the play. SF 0 – PHI 15
  • Q3 08:06 FG PHI (8:06) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. SF 0 – PHI 20
  • Q3 04:36 TD SF (4:36) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 22-M.Breida for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-D.Barnett]. SF 6 – PHI 20
  • Q3 03:46 TD PHI (3:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-A.Jeffery for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – PHI 26
  • Q4 10:28 TD PHI (10:28) 29-L.Blount right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-99-D.Buckner, Defensive Offside, declined. SF 7 – PHI 33
  • Q4 05:26 FG SF (5:26) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 10 – PHI 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (12:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 22%

    (9:49) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (8:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to PHI 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (2:41) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to PHI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to SF 49, Center-45-R.Lovato. 81-T.Taylor to PHI 44 for 7 yards (52-N.Goode).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%

    (12:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to PHI 2, impetus ends at PHI 1, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-44-K.Juszczyk.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:16) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to SF 48, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-D.McDougle. PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 48.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:32) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SF 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to PHI 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-86-K.Nelson.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:19) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to SF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 81-T.Taylor to SF 25 for 2 yards (10-M.Hollins). PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 25.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to PHI 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to PHI 41 for 10 yards (19-A.Robinson).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 18%

    (10:25) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to SF 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-D.McDougle.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to PHI 49, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 68%

    (8:06) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to PHI 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to PHI 26 for 4 yards (88-G.Celek).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (14:10) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Barnett), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by PHI-96-D.Barnett at PHI 30. 96-D.Barnett to PHI 38 for 8 yards (88-G.Celek).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 19 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 68%

    (5:26) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 28%

    (1:53) 30-C.Clement left guard to SF 45 for 2 yards (54-R.Armstrong).