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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 92

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to SF 48, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-D.McDougle. PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.60 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP