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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 47
Philadelphia Eagles 33 – San Francisco 49ers 10
What Actually Happened
(1:53) 30-C.Clement left guard to SF 45 for 2 yards (54-R.Armstrong).
The Three Options
GO
+0.53 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.49 EP
- 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.81 EP
KICK
-0.72 EP
- 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 72% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
