Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.62 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP

KICK -1.41 EP

22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
78% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model