Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to SF 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 81-T.Taylor to SF 25 for 2 yards (10-M.Hollins). PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model